Not too long after Ukraine’s initial successful counteroffensive that saw the city of Kherson liberated from the Russian invaders, it seems that the Ukrainian military, possessing great momentum following the stall of Russia’s initial offensives, and perhaps high off the victory in the major city of Kherson, has already launched another counteroffensive, this time seemingly aiming to encircle multiple divisions of the Russian Army, and to push towards the Crimean peninsula, under occupation by Russia since Euromaidan in 2014.
Of note in the initial stages of this invasion, are Ukraine’s focus on decapitating the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the primary Naval Organ of Russian sea operations in the war thus far. Via NATO provided missile launchers, the Ukrainian armed forces have successfully launched multiple missiles at Sevastopol, commonly referred to as “The Capital of Crimea” and easily the largest city on the peninsula. The city, headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, plays host to the fleet itself, and other armed forces of the Russian Federation.
The missile itself struck the headquarters building itself, which, according to Russian authorities, “Scattered Debris for Hundreds of Miles.” The Ukrainian Armed forces has issued a statement, stating that Russia has two options for its fleet, “Voluntary or Forced Self-Liquidation,” essentially condemning the Black Sea Fleet to destruction. Whether or not Ukraine will be able to actually sink the fleet, and clear the Black Sea for further operations remains to be seen however.
As the Counteroffensive continues its push, with the goal possibly assumed to be Mariupol, the only major Ukrainian city that Russia still occupies, the State Media of Russia and the United Russia party, the incumbent party of the Russian Federation since its inception following the dissolution of the USSr back in 1991, continues to attempt to turn Ukraine’s allies on her, and continues its longstanding propaganda campaign aimed to demean and deface the current Ukrainian administration. The Russian Government issued a statement on September 22nd, stating “As we can see, there are certain tensions between Warsaw and Kyiv. We predict that these tensions will increase,” said Dimitri Peskov, a spokesperson for the Kremlin.
Military predictions, including those by Ukraine’s allies in NATO, estimate good success for the Ukrainian counter-offensive, especially amidst failure after failure by all arms of the Russian Armed Forces throughout the course of the war. With the Russian military completely dry on steam, and internal instabilities exacerbated by the Wagner Group, the military occupation in Ukraine is thought to be in a state of disarray that the Ukrainian military could possibly exploit.
Some experts even go as far to claim that Ukraine could possibly reclaim Crimea, which would represent a decisive defeat for the Russian Federation, or, more worryingly, could lead to an escalation by the Putin administration. Although Putin has thrown around the threat of using Russia’s nuclear weapons against Ukraine, most do not take him seriously, but if Crimea were to fall, and Sevastopol to be liberated by the Ukrainian government, then Putin might see it as if he has no other choice.
Yet, as the war continues to throw surprise after surprise at all witnesses, perhaps it is only speculation as to what is yet to come.
